William Foley
San Francisco
About
I build companies and analyze them. The two practices feed each other. The founder work teaches me what actually breaks inside a business, which sharpens the investment analysis. The investment work teaches me how markets price execution risk, which sharpens the operator decisions.
Most recently I built Flonance, an AI-native accounts payable platform, solo from zero. Before that, Rill Athletics, a client intelligence product for personal trainers that landed seven paying customers in Lisbon. I've closed $1M+ in personal deal volume across automotive and fitness B2C, averaging $1.5K front-end gross per deal and a 20% close rate on consultative sales.
My equity research practice has run for a decade. I started reading 10-Ks at nine. I've documented 5+ investment memos on positions that appreciated 50%+ within six months of entry, with a framework built around defined-risk structures, deterministic position economics, and disciplined exit criteria. The work draws on first-principles fundamental analysis paired with options-based expression of conviction.
The throughline across everything I've built is the same question: where does the work compound, and where does it just burn?
Equity Research
Public equity analysis. Defined-risk options structures, position economics, and post-mortems on disciplined passes.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV)
A defined-risk options structure on the AI infrastructure thesis. The memo walks through entry timing on the post-Q3 selloff, the contractual math of a $35-wide call debit spread, and a ten-point sanity framework that survives a quarterly earnings print.
NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR)
A pass-decision memo on the small modular reactor opportunity in the AI power buildout. The memo lays out the macro thesis that drew the original interest, the structural concerns that produced the pass, and what the eight months of price action have done to the original framework.
Eaton Corporation (NYSE: ETN)
An investment thesis on the grid infrastructure beneficiary of the AI compute power buildout. The memo examines how data center demand translates into a multi-year tailwind for the electrical equipment Eaton ships, where the durable margin profile sits, and what the consensus has already priced in.
Market Analysis
Industry briefs and competitive landscape work for private-market opportunities.
Chips and Capital Loosen. Power Becomes the Ceiling.
A US tech, semiconductor, and AI outlook for Q3 and Q4 2026, when the binding constraint on AI shifts from chips and capital to power, cooling, and copper.
Dynamic Pricing in the Multi-Location Medspa Vertical
A market opportunity brief on a fragmented industry undergoing PE-led consolidation. The memo identifies a structural pricing inefficiency that incumbent vendors recognize but have not built for, then names the specific buyer profile most likely to act.
The Dark Pipeline
A market analysis on how AI-mediated vendor research is corrupting the channel it created. The piece traces the path from the dark funnel to the AEO/GEO arms race to the agent-mediated procurement layer being built underneath. Where the buyer goes next.
Operating Work
Solo-founder product builds with documented customer outcomes.
